Global Wheat Market Dynamics: What Is the Role of the EU and the Black Sea Wheat Exporters?

Over the last two decades, three countries in Black Sea Region—Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan—became global leaders grain production trade, replaced USA France as most previous largest wheat exporting countries. In this study we investigate world price linkages identify current “price leaders” of market. This empirical analysis is focused on relationships between eight uses a cointegration framework vector error-correction model. The results show that, regarding formation market, French more important for transmitting signals to other export markets compared USA. Furthermore, our indicate despite being volumes, prices Russia Ukraine adjust changes France, USA, Canada. Albeit unrealistic short run, creation futures market region might significantly improve participation